How will transitioning from cytology to HPV testing change the balance between the benefits and harms of cervical cancer screening? Estimates of the impact on cervical cancer, treatment rates and adverse obstetric outcomes in Australia, a high vaccination coverage country

Abstract

Primary HPV screening enables earlier diagnosis of cervical lesions compared to cytology, however, its effect on the risk of treatment has not been investigated. We estimated the cumulative lifetime risk (CLR) of cervical cancer and excisional treatment; and change in adverse obstetric outcomes in HPV unvaccinated women and cohorts offered vaccination (>70% coverage in 12-13 years) for the Australian cervical screening program. 2-yearly cytology screening (ages 18-69 years) was compared to 5-yearly primary HPV screening with partial genotyping for HPV16/18 (ages 25-74 years). A dynamic model of HPV transmission, vaccination, cervical screening and treatment for precancerous lesions was coupled with an individual-based simulation of obstetric complications. For cytology screening, the CLR of cervical cancer diagnosis, death and treatment would be 0.65%, 0.20% and 13% without vaccination and 0.18%, 0.06% and 7%, in vaccinated cohorts, respectively. For HPV screening, relative reductions of 33% and 22% in cancer risk for unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts are predicted, respectively, compared to cytology. Without vaccination, a 4% increase in treatment risk for HPV versus cytology screening is predicted, implying a possible increase in pre-term delivery (PTD) and low birthweight (LBW) events of 19-35 and 14-37, respectively, per 100,000 unvaccinated women. However, in vaccinated cohorts treatment risk will decrease by 13%, potentially leading to 4-41 fewer PTD events and from 2 more to 52 fewer LBW events per 100,000 vaccinated women. HPV screening starting at age 25 in populations with high vaccination coverage, is therefore expected to decrease the risks of cervical cancer and excisional treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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