30-day mortality risk after major surgery

Pre-operative assessment of 30-day mortality risk after major surgery: the role of the quick sequential organ failure assessment: A retrospective observational study
BACKGROUND The quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is intended for the assessment of the prognosis and risk of sepsis. It may also help predict the mortality risk of nonseptic patients. OBJECTIVE This study investigated the relationship between pre-operative qSOFA scores and 30-day mortality after major surgery. It also evaluated the predictive value of qSOFA scores combined with the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status and Charlson comorbidity index (CCI). DESIGN A retrospective observational study. SETTING Single tertiary academic hospital. PATIENTS Medical records of patients who underwent major surgery (estimated blood loss >500 ml; surgery time >2 h) between January 2010 and December 2017 were examined. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The qSOFA score was measured within 24 h before surgery, and its association with 30-day mortality was analysed using multivariable logistic regression. A receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis was used to investigate the predictive power of the pre-operative qSOFA scores combined with the ASA physical status and with CCI. RESULTS A total of 6336 patients were included in the final analysis, and 91 (1.4%) died within 30 days. The multivariable logistic regression analysis including all covariates indicated that 30-day mortality was 2.43-times higher for the score 1 group than for the score 0 group (P = 0.002), and it was 3.54-times higher for the score at least 2 group than for the score 0 group (P < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) of the pre-operative qSOFA, ASA physical status and CCI were 0.69, 0.55 and 0.57, respectively. When the pre-operative qSOFA score was combined with the ASA physical status or CCI, the AUCs were 0.73 and 0.72, respectively. CONCLUSION Higher pre-operative qSOFA scores within 24 h of surgery were associated with increased 30-day mortality. Pre-operative qSOFA scores have better predictive value for 30-day mortality when combined with the ASA physical status or CCI. Correspondence to Tak Kyu Oh, MD, Department of Anesthesiology and Pain Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Gumi-ro 173 Beon-gil, Bundang-gu, Seongnam 13620, Korea Tel: +82 31 787 7499; fax: +82 31 787 4063; e-mail: airohtak@hotmail.com Supplemental digital content is available for this article. Direct URL citations appear in the printed text and are provided in the HTML and PDF versions of this article on the journal's Website (www.ejanaesthesiology.com). © 2019 European Society of Anaesthesiology