Environment Systems and Decisions

Bibliometric analysis of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment research Abstract The first step in planning the actions for climate change adaptation involves performing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) to vulnerable populations and ecological systems. The study aims to perform a bibliometric analysis on the CCVA research field to identify how it was structured in terms of the mostly occurring research terms and their citation impact. A set of scientific papers related to CCVA (n = 8941) were retrieved via Elsevier’s Scopus database over the period 1996–2016 using specific keywords. The search was carried out in February 2017. The number of yearly papers published in CCVA research field increased after 2006, increasing more than six times in 2016. Our co-occurrences term analysis grouped four clusters related to (i) exposure, sensitivity, and quantitative methods for assessing CCVA, (ii) adaptive capacity and qualitative approaches, (iii) CCVA integrated approaches by combining participatory methods to quantitative ones, and (iv) collaboration and participation issues related to global change. The co-citation analysis showed that highly cited research terms were related to adaptation, exposure factors, and related changes and global change. This bibliometric analysis has provided an overall picture on the CCVA research field, particularly highlighting its utility for climate change adaptation.

Systems modeling techniques for data analysis, decision making, and risk governance

Use of retired oil and gas platforms for fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico Abstract Petroleum resources are declining on the continental shelf and will, eventually, result in the loss of ~ 30,000 jobs in related industries. Retired oil and gas platforms could be redeployed to culture fish and employ citizens in coastal areas. The Energy Policy Act 2005 Section 388 of Public Law [PL] 109-58 30 CFR 285.1000 Subpart J encourages the use of the retired structures for alternate uses. At present, there are no fishermen currently taking advantage of this legislation. We suggest amending existing laws to improve the likelihood that retired platforms are used to culture fish and invertebrates. In the future, the abandoned oil and gas infrastructure could also be used to recover stranded petroleum and reserves located in deeper horizons.

Trade–finance complementarity and carbon emission intensity: panel evidence from middle-income countries Abstract This paper examines the complementarity/substitutability of international trade and financial development in the mitigation of carbon emissions for a panel sample of 62 middle-income countries from 1991 to 2010. Applying the bias-corrected LSDV estimator, the paper yields interesting results. For the full sample, international trade and financial development play an interactive and complementary role in reducing CO2 intensity of energy use. That is, the environmental benefit of international trade is materialized only if a country has a well-developed financial market. Likewise, financial development is beneficial to the environment only in a highly open economy. Having stated these, the analysis also uncovers evidence that these results may be different across levels of income or across regions. The results bear important policy implications for the abatement of the environmental problem in the middle-income countries.

A multi-criteria decision analysis of solid waste treatment options in Pakistan: Lahore City—a case in point Abstract Population of the world is increasing day by day, resulting in enormous amount of waste production. In the modern age of great technological advancements, there needs to be a systematic method to keep the environment clean. The waste management activities, i.e., collection, transport and disposal, pose a great challenge to the waste managers as they have to factor in various eclectic factors such as land availability, facilities available, budget, time required and the impact it would have on the environment, while tackling this problem. Lahore, despite being the most developed city of Pakistan, does not have a suitable solid waste management system. An increasing population leads to more waste generation, and in Lahore the situation is no different. Several waste management companies are working in the city, but as of yet they have not been able to make significant inroads to completely eradicate the problem. The aim of this paper is to suggest a suitable way for dealing with the waste. To accomplish this aim, a hierarchy-based model is used, considering six criteria and five alternatives. We used multi-criteria decision analysis to decide among different waste management alternatives. Forecasting has been used to find the population and waste produced over the years. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) are used to rank the feasible alternative. The results show that the population and waste were increasing drastically. Aerobic digestion was ranked as the best alternative for waste management according to AHP and TOPSIS, but there is great variation among the rank of other alternatives.

The theory of graceful extensibility: basic rules that govern adaptive systems Abstract The paper introduces the theory of graceful extensibility which expresses fundamental characteristics of the adaptive universe that constrain the search for sustained adaptability. The theory explains the contrast between successful and unsuccessful cases of sustained adaptability for systems that serve human purposes. Sustained adaptability refers to the ability to continue to adapt to changing environments, stakeholders, demands, contexts, and constraints (in effect, to adapt how the system in question adapts). The key new concept at the heart of the theory is graceful extensibility. Graceful extensibility is the opposite of brittleness, where brittleness is a sudden collapse or failure when events push the system up to and beyond its boundaries for handling changing disturbances and variations. As the opposite of brittleness, graceful extensibility is the ability of a system to extend its capacity to adapt when surprise events challenge its boundaries. The theory is presented in the form of a set of 10 proto-theorems derived from just two assumptions—in the adaptive universe, resources are always finite and change continues. The theory contains three subsets of fundamentals: managing the risk of saturation, networks of adaptive units, and outmaneuvering constraints. The theory attempts to provide a formal base and common language that characterizes how complex systems sustain and fail to sustain adaptability as demands change.

Hierarchical modeling of seed variety yields and decision making for future planting plans Abstract Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the twenty first century. This paper addresses the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision making framework. Specifically, a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting crop yield (the yield of different seed varieties of the same crop) is introduced. This prediction mechanism is then integrated with a weather forecasting model and three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty to select seed varieties for planting so as to balance yield maximization and risk. The model was applied to the problem of soybean variety selection given in the 2016 Syngenta Crop Challenge. The prediction model achieved a median absolute error of 235 kg/ha and thus provides good estimates for input into the decision models. The decision models identified the selection of soybean varieties that appropriately balance yield and risk as a function of the farmer’s risk aversion level. More generally, the models can support farmers in decision making about which seed varieties to plant.

Development of community of practice to support quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology products: contaminant bioremediation and invasive carp control as cases Abstract Synthetic biology has the potential for a broad array of applications. However, realization of this potential is challenged by the paucity of relevant data for conventional risk assessment protocols, a limitation due to to the relative nascence of the field, as well as the poorly characterized and prioritized hazard, exposure, and dose–response considerations associated with the development and use of synthetic biology-derived organisms. Where quantitative risk assessment approaches are necessarily to fulfill regulatory requirements for review of products containing genetically modified organisms, this paper reviews one potential avenue for early-stage quantitative risk assessment for biosafety considerations of synthetic biology organism deployment into the environment. Building from discussion from a March 2018 US Army Engineer Research and Development Center workshop on developing such quantitative risk assessment for synthetic biology, this paper reviews the findings and discussion of workshop participants. This paper concludes that, while synthetic biology risk assessment and governance will continue to refine and develop in the coming years, a quantitative framework that builds from existing practice is one potentially beneficial option for risk assessors that must contend with the technology’s limited hazard characterization or exposure assessment considerations in the near term.

The optimal dam site selection using a group decision-making method through fuzzy TOPSIS model Abstract The complex and controversial task of selecting a dam site in a river basin can be successfully achieved using science-informed multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. In this paper, we describe the application of the group fuzzy TOPSIS model for optimal ranking of the case study of Kandoleh dam sites in Kermanshah province, Iran, involving 18 input criteria. In this study, decision-making committee was made up of 20 involved decision makers. The comments of four non-biased, external experts in dam site selection were also used. The triangular fuzzy numbers were used to apply experts’ opinions on the selection criteria. In total, four alternative sites were assessed based on the technical, economic, social and environmental considerations and the data were analyzed using fuzzy TOPSIS MCDM model. Ranking results were compared with multi-criteria decision-making models, including the ELimination and Choice Expressing the REality and simple additive weighting. This logical, open and transparent framework provides a science-informed decision-making approach for complex problems such as optimal dam site selection. Finally, using sensitivity analysis, local studies and group discussions, we demonstrated the multiple benefits of the proposed novel method for a science-informed, open and transparent method for optimal ranking of the dam site candidates.

Comparative analyses of flood damage models in three Asian countries: towards a regional flood risk modelling Abstract The use of different approaches in the development of flood damage models in various countries is expected to affect flood damage modelling at a regional or global scale. Since these models are often used as tools for disaster management and decision making, it is very needful to understand the comparative similarity and differences in countries’ loss models; this can help in the overall integration for developing regional risk models and cross-country risk assessment. In this study, empirically generated generalised loss models in three Asian countries (Sri Lanka, Thailand and Japan) were compared and applied to estimate potential flood damages in two different urban river basins. For each case study, each model was normalised using cost prices and floor areas (as applied to each country) and were integrated within the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to estimate damages for the flood events. Using the mean vulnerability index of corresponding building types for the selected countries, a single model for regional flood risk assessment was created. However, the study showed that there are variations in the vulnerability and the potential flood damage estimates of similar global building types from the three countries, despite being developed by the same approach. These are attributed to the country’s specific conditions such as building regulations and codes, GDP per capita, cost price of building materials. Our results suggest that the average vulnerability index from the countries however reduced potential errors in the estimates. Moreover, it is proposed that the average regional vulnerability model derived with empirical data inputs from all the countries for regional risk assessment and cross-country comparison. Therefore, it can predict near accurate potential flood damages, which can serve as measures for regional flood disaster risk management plans.