Real-Time Integrated Limited-Stop and Short-Turning Bus Control with Stochastic Travel Time

In a traditional transit system, passenger arrival time and bus running time are typically random and uncoordinated. This randomness gives the appearance of unbalanced passenger demand and unreliable transit services. Therefore, this paper proposes a real-time control method for bus routes. In our method, buses skip some stations and turn back at appropriate stations, in order to balance passenger demand along the bus route and improve the overall transit service. Our real-time control method considers the typical changes in passenger demand and the stochastic travel time of buses. In this paper, the number of controlled vehicles at any given time is determined, and the bus holding time at the turn-back station is adopted. When implemented correctly, the optimal scheme indicates which stations should be skipped, where it is suitable for buses to turn back, and how long the holding time should be at turn-back stations, which in turn will minimize the total cost of a transit system. This paper formulates such an integrated strategy, presents the solution method of the formulation, and proves the validity of the real-time control method.

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