Mapping Scenario Narratives: A Technique to Enhance Landscape-scale Biodiversity Planning

Oberon Carter, Michael Mitchell, Luciana L Porfririo, Sonia Hugh, Michael Lockwood, Louise Gilfedder, Edward C Lefroy

Conservation and Society 2017 15(2):179-188

Developing regional scenarios enables planners to engage land managers in discussions about the future, especially in contexts that are complex, uncertain and difficult to control. Richly-crafted qualitative narratives are an effective way to document future scenarios that integrate social, economic and biophysical attributes. Converting such narratives into spatial representations of future landscapes often relies on computational modelling. This paper presents an alternative technique. Key themes from scenario narratives are translated into spatial representations using simple rule sets within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The technique was applied to a case study exploring future scenarios for biodiversity in a predominantly privately-owned agricultural landscape. Iterative analysis of scenarios and their spatial implications enables land managers to explore outcomes from potential interventions and identify strategies that might mitigate the impact of future issues of environmental concern.

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